@article{148011,
  author = {David Kanter and Xin Zhang and Denise Mauzerall+ and Sergey Malyshev and Elena Shevliakova},
  title = {The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture},
  abstract = { Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance. Previous projections of agricultural N2O (the dominant anthropogenic source)show emissions changing in tandem, or at a faster rate than changes in nitrogen (N) consumption. However, recent studies suggest that the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect may increase plant N uptake, which could decrease soil N losses and dampen increases in N2O. To evaluate this hypothesis at a global scale, we use a process-based land model with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to examine how changes in climatic factors, land-use, and N application rates could affect agricultural N2O emissions by 2050. Assuming little improvement in N use efficiency (NUE), the model projects a 24\%{\textendash}31\% increase in global agricultural N2O emissions by 2040{\textendash}2050 depending on the climate scenario{\textemdash}a relatively moderate increase compared to the projected increases in N inputs(42\%{\textendash}44\%) and previously published emissions projections(38\%{\textendash}75\%). This occurs largely because the CO2 fertilization effect enhances plant N uptake in several regions, which subsequently dampens N2O emissions. And yet, improvements in NUE could still deliver important environmental benefits by 2050: equivalent to 10 Pg CO2 equivalent and 0.6 Tg ozone depletion potential. },
  year = {2016},
  journal = {Environ. Res. Lett.},
  volume = {44},
  chapter = {11},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094003},
  language = {eng},
}